Determination to the past ‘beautiful’
In addition to working additional hours and produces a lot of analysis with only a few hours, the second Trump era seems to mean uncertainty, uncertainty and high volatility. The last few days like a setback when I was confused in the ‘House of Cards’. Every new step feels like a strategic power game, making the world of tension and constantly restless. One time, you are in the middle of a political storm, and then, there is a surprising touch that changes everything. The whole world is allowed to try to follow an unexpected plot.
Admitted, it is not entirely unpredictable, because the pattern that appears this week is very similar to what we see around 2018. Usually it starts with a number of big announcements, followed by executive orders to show seriousness, and then we are waiting to see whether the negotiations work or What is a financial market rebellion. So, there’s nothing new?
All world stages
I’m not very sure. Even if the first round of tariff tension ends like a storm that disappears into a gentle breeze, tariffs, for some people, not only the most beautiful words in the dictionary but, it seems, a strong foreign policy instrument. In short, the last few days only marked the first stage of Donald Trump’s trading policy. Call it the “Fentanyl phase”, where the tariff is only used to bring other countries to the table to provide the success of domestic policies in the war against drugs and illegal immigration.
Phase two can then be called the “income and economic phase”, where trading policies will be used to finance domestic tax cuts. This is why we hold fast to the fundamental assumption that, in April, the US government will also threaten Europe at tariffs. And although, economically, the EU is bigger and stronger than Canada or Mexico, I doubt whether Europeans can work together to build a strong and coherent defense line on US trade policies that are too aggressive. Approve the steps of retaliation rates are under the responsibility of the European Commission, but approves every new purchase in Europe from certain US products, be it LNG, military or agricultural goods, requires unity between European countries and government. And that is something that rarely happens.
You can’t make it up
Speaking of the European government, don’t forget that there are more in the world than Trump and tariffs. In two weeks from now, Europe will see important voting: German Snap Election. For a long time, German politics has become a flare of stability in Europe, but this has changed. Bet on the results, or even where the parties will form the next government, is something from the game of fools, at least because of the impact of the right wing. This is a good vote, which only shows that Germany eventually becomes a more ‘normal’ European country in the sense that populist also gets land here. And while the AFD prospect of joining the government still looks one step away now, small changes in the results can have a big impact.
So, this election and posture of Washington and its surroundings quickly form the new world order, which will not only determine the future of Germany but also from the European Union.
I admit: I am a political addict, and I watched too many TV series with a strange plot and conspiracy theory. So, is the best Hollywood script not suitable for the real world in 2025? Quoting from the original House of Cards series, you might think that; I can’t possibly comment …
Source: Ing
