Traders around the world project that tariffs and inflation will have the biggest impact on the global market in 2025 when they are preparing for volatility, the annual survey of the institutional trading client by JPMorgan Chase JPM was shown on Wednesday.
The bank said 51% of 4,233 respondents were named inflation and joint tariffs -the same as the top potential developments that tend to dominate the market this year. Last year, inflation was also a major concern, but only for 27% of the people interviewed.
The threat of US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on goods imported abroad and others aimed at certain sectors or countries already have a whip market this year.
The main stock index fell on Monday after Trump announced on Saturday a large new tariff of 25% for imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% in China. The next day, they rose after the president postponed tariffs in Mexico and Canada.
Many market participants see tariff policies as inflation.
“At the beginning of the week, we saw traders involved in far more activities, trying to re -balance their portfolios because of the movement of 1 to 2 percent in individual currencies such as Canadian dollars, Mexico Peso, and Yuan China off the coast,” said Chi Nzelu, Head of Global Fixed Income, Currency, and E-Trading Commodities in JPMorgan.
On the other hand, fewer traders believe that the potential for recession can move the market this year: 7% versus 18% in 2024.
When asked about the biggest challenge in 2025, volatility was the topic most mentioned by traders, repeating fears of 2024. This year, 41% of respondents quoted him as the main challenge, while 28% of respondents mentioned it in a 2024 survey.
“What distinguishes this year is the rather unexpected volatility time. Unlike in the past, when volatility was bound to the scheduled event such as the selection or non-agricultural payroll data, we saw more sudden fluctuations in responding to the headlines around the administrative plan, which led to spontaneous reactions in the market, “said Eddie Wen , Head of Global Digital Market in JPMorgan.
The JPMorgan electronic trading report also asks traders about their biggest concerns in terms of market structure, with access to liquidity, changes in regulations and market data access and costs that lead the package.
Among the trends captured by a bank survey is an increase in electronic trade, which is predicted by traders will increase among all products traded next year, from market tariffs that emerge to commodities and credit distribution.
Source: Reuters
