TThe domestic oil market in Nigeria after the operational status of the dangote refinery, forms the characteristics of new demand in the product tanker market. In its latest weekly report, the Gibson ship said that “After countless setbacks, unexpected challenges and pandemic to be handled, last month, Reuters reported that the 650KBD dangote refinery had reached 85% of its operating capacity and could reach 100% in 30 days, citing company sources. The start of the operation at the updated 60KBD Harcourt Port refinery and the 125KBD Warri refinery was also reported by NNPC at the end of 2024. No doubt, the addition of new capacity and old factory restarts representing significant achievements for Nigeria, which is inevitable leading to structural shifts in the products of the country and Crune. However, while changes in the trading flow have been observed, so far they are rather limited, given the reported purification capabilities “.
Source: Gibson Shipbroker
According to Gibson, “Various sources estimate the maximum dangote gasoline output to be between 300 and 365KBD. In addition, the factory can produce around 250KBD diesel and 50KBD jet fuel, with several flexibility to adjust the results. The ability to purify Port Harcourt and Warri Refineries has not been revealed publicly, but NNPC has reported the loading of the main processed products – gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel “.
“According to the KPler, so far this year Nigeria has imported around 205KBD CPP, with an average gasoline import of around 135KBD, reaching the lowest level since the record began in February but rebounded in early March. Overall, gasoline imports have declined by around 185KBD from the 2023 level. The country also continues to import a small amount of diesel, although in a lower volume than in 2023. Likewise, there has been no important decline in Nigerian crude oil exports. This year’s delivery is around 1.3MBD, only 200KBD below the 2023 level, although dangote increases local crude oil intake in the sea around 400kbd since December. Here, a limited reduction in raw exports can be partly caused by increased production of crude oil, “said Gibson.
The ship added that “At a glance, trading data shows that the joint operation rate in Dangote and NNPC refineries that are changed remains below the reported capacity, although this may be at least partially explained by the ongoing challenges. The media report shows that dangote has struggled to secure adequate domestic raw supply, sometimes looking for us and, recently, barrels of angel. Short shutdown from Cruider Cruid Cruid Cruid (RFCC) gasoline producer has also been reported earlier this year. Meanwhile, NNPC reported maintenance at the Warri Refinery in February “.
“By remembering this, further decline in clean imports and coarse exports seemed inevitable. So far, the reduction in imports of Nigerian net products is mainly limited to shipping from Europe, which has dropped around 155kBD this year compared to 2023. Interestingly, the MR part of the trade remains stable, but LR1 shipments have dropped from 115KBD in 2023 to almost no this year. LR2 trade also declined, although not drastically. Further reduction in sending European gasoline to Nigeria is bound to affect MR rates. With February CPP flows to Nigeria which is very low, structural attacks for MR demand can soon occur, “Gibson concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News worldwide
