Liquid natural gas imports in the world will jump to the highest a year in January because winter demand in Europe attracts cargo from the region that takes many Asia.
A total of 38.12 million metrics of very cold fuel tons are on the path that will be imported in January, up from 37.69 million in December and the most since January 2024’s 38.73 million, according to data collected by the KPler Commodity Analyst .
January volume is also the third highest in the record, underlines strong growth in LNG imports because of new supplies online and when Europe is trying to replace natural gas pipes from Russia.
European imports are expected by the KPler to increase to 11.82 million tons in January, up from 10.87 million in December and the highest since April 2023.
January volume for Europe is also on the path to become the fourth highest monthly total, defeated only three months in 2022 and 2023 when the continent struggled for gas after the closure of the pipe supply from Russia after the Moscow invasion to Ukraine in February 2022.
It should also be noted that while European LNG imports are likely to rise 8.7% in January from the previous month, the arrival of Russia is expected to drop to 1.60 million tons, down 11.6% from 1.81 million December.
The prospect of European LNG imports from Russia is increasingly uncertain, especially with the return of Donald Trump as US president.
Trump shamelessly supports increasing US energy exports, and LNG delivery to Europe offers one of the best opportunities to do so.
If European countries agreed to remove imports from Russia who supported US cargo, it would help meet several goals.
This includes putting further pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, as well as giving Trump “winning” which can help alleviate the threat of new tariffs on European exports to the United States.
The United States has become the largest exporter of LNG in the world, and the new factory commissioning in 2025 will strengthen that position.
But the global LNG market can move to a surplus at the end of this year, making it for the benefit of Trump and US LNG exporters to try and limit the market for Russian exports.
US LNG imports in Europe are expected to rise to the highest record of 6.70 million tons in January, up from 5.20 million in December and 11.7% above the previous peak 6.0 million in January last year.
Soft Asia
Conversely, Asian imports from US LNG are expected to drop to 1.81 million tons in January, down from 2.2 million in December and the lowest since February 2024, according to the KPler.
Total Asian LNG imports were also set for a decline in January, down to 24.48 million tons from the highest 10 months 25.50 million in December.
This decline is mostly caused by a lighter winter than usual, which has cut demand in China, Japan and South Korea, the top three importers in the world.
The relatively high price of places has also cut demand, especially in China, with the arrival of January scheduled to reach 6.29 million tons, down from 7.58 million December and nearly 20% below 7.83 million in January 2024.
The price of spots for LNG for shipping to North Asia (LNG-As) ended last week at $ 14.00 per million British thermal units (MMBTU), up slightly from $ 13.90 in the previous week.
The price peaked last year at $ 15.10 in a week to 29 November, the period when the cargo which was canceled in January will be secured.
European natural gas prices also continue to increase, with TTF benchmarks (TRNLTTFMC1) ended at 47.90 euros per megawatt hours, which is equivalent to $ 14.73 MMBTU.
This is a high price to attract the US to Europe and far from Asia, especially when shorter delivery time and costs are taken into account.
With Europe, it is necessary to recharge the inventory of natural gas and stay away from Russia’s LNG, it is likely to have a higher price than the one in Asia.
This in turn can limit the usual seasonal decline in the price of Asian spots in the shoulder season between winter and summer of peak demand.
Source: Reuters
