China’s large commodity imports began with a weak start in 2025, continuing the recent softening trend in the midst of concerns about the momentum of growth in the second largest economy in the world.
Imports of crude oil, natural gas, iron ore and copper have all declined in the first two months of this year compared to the same period last year, according to official customs data released on Friday.
Coal imports rose in the January-February period compared to the same period in 2024, however, they fell significantly from the levels seen in November and December, showing that Chinese tastes for fuel faded.
The warm beginning for the year for buyers of the largest commodity in the world added concerns about the economic prospects of China, mainly because of trade tensions with the new government of President Donald Trump showed signs of increasing.
There is no clearer concern than the import of crude oil, which dropped to 83.85 million metric tons in the first two months, equivalent to 10.42 million barrels per day (BPD).
It fell 3.4% based on barrels per day from 10.79 million BPD which was reported during the first two months of 2024, and also under 11.31 million BPD imported in December.
China combines imported data for January and February to eliminate the impact of the Lunar New Year holidays for a week, time that changes every year.
It is possible that more stringent sanctions on Russian crude oil exports introduced in January by former US President Joe Biden cut several requests for Chinese imports.
But it also seems that Chinese refiners make a little effort to find crude oil from other suppliers to replace the missing Russian cargo, which is likely to be a reflection of the high price of global crude oil in force in early January.
Brent Crude Futures reached the highest six months of $ 82.63 per barrel on January 15, when several February-cargo-cargo which was regulated in March would be regulated.
The price has slipped in the midst of geopolitical tensions and trade to around $ 69.52 per barrel in Asian trade on Friday, but it is too early to say that this level is low enough to trigger new purchases from Chinese refiners.
LNG Price
High place prices may also have an impact on the import of liquid natural gas (LNG), with customs data showing the arrival of LNG and gas pipeline at 20.31 million tons, down 8.1% of the 22.1 million recorded for the first two months last year.
LNG Spot for shipping to North Asia reached the highest of 15 months $ 16.10 per million British thermal units in mid -February, but the price was around $ 14 since the end of November, the level was almost doubled as in February 2024.
The picture for coal, other major energy commodities, more diverse, with imports all values in the first two months reached the highest record for the January-February period 76.12 million tons, up 2.1% from 74.52 million years ago.
But the figure was lit to cheat, because it also fell 29% from 107.33 million tons for the previous two months in December and November.
The sharp decline from the last two months of 2024 is likely to reflect that domestic coal output has been strong, and inventory in power plants has increased, cutting imported fuel demand.
Turning to metal and imported iron ore, key steel raw materials, down 8.4% to 191.36 million tons in the first two months of 2025 from the same period last year.
Imports may have been affected in February by the delay of several cargo from the top Australian producers after the typhoon disrupts shipping from the state of Western Australia.
However, the prospect of the most careful demand for iron ore this year, especially considering the country’s economic planning guidelines this week that steel production must be lower this year than in 2024.
Copper, industrial metal, which is often seen as economic servants, sees imports down 7.2% in the first two months of this year to 837,000 tons.
Softer demand for copper that is not accompanied is also a reflection of a higher price, which London contracted up from $ 8,768 per ton at the end of 2024 to the peak of $ 9,739 on March 5, an increase of 11%.
History shows that when commodity prices rise sharply, or quickly, Chinese buyers tend to reduce imports and turn to inventory if needed.
While price increases help explain weaknesses in the import of crude oil, natural gas and copper, they are less helpful in terms of iron ore and coal, both of which see the price decline in the first two months of this year.
Conversely, the possibility of price impact is added to a weakened trend for the import of China’s main commodity.
Source: Reuters (editing by Stephen Coates)
