Temporary Termination of Russia on the attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure has increased the expectation of a peaceful agreement and eventually lifting sanctions, but every normalization of Russian oil flow is impossible to cause direct volume reduction to India and China, where the squash is increasingly complete to deal with various crude from non-opie non-opie values.
Penytiling in the two countries holds that discounts on Russian crude oil can disappear or make it easier after sanctions are revoked.
But oil diplomacy will play a role and Russia will do everything that can be ascertained to ensure two of its top buyers on his side to ensure stable stone outlets for oil in the future, analysts, penyaling and government sources told platts, part of the S&P global commodity insight.
“Until now, I see the flow of Russian oil to India not to face many obstacles and will continue even after the peace process. But once the sanctions are revoked, Russian oil and gas will be driven by the market and there will be no special discounts,” said DLN Sastri, Director of Oil and Marketing at the Indian Oil Industry Federation, to Platts.
Temporarily stopped on energy infrastructure attacks
Kremlin said March 18 that Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered a 30 -day stopping for an attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure when he and US President Donald Trump discussed plans to normalize relations and increase economic and energy ties. The initial statement of Kremlin did not mention specifically about the sanctions of the regime pioneered by the previous US administration.
“Drone attacks on several refineries and storage, transportation barriers and high cost they pay to bring oil to India and China, sustainable black seafood tensions, and the threat of production cuts – all of this is expected to get a breath and prices must alleviate a peaceful agreement to achieve several conclusions,” said a leading oil source with a resting experience in India in India.
S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that oil and global fluid production will exceed demand throughout the year. As a result, platts dated Brent are projected to be an average of $ 73/B in 2025, lower than the average $ 81/B in 2024, with further decline in anticipation in 2026.
In 2024, India witnessed the shift in its crude oil sources. Imports from the Middle East took a little blow, while Russian crude oil stepped, forming about 35% of total imports, which reached around 4.9 million b/d. Although India continues to receive smaller volumes than regions such as Latin America and Africa, the Middle East and the combined Russia contributed nearly 80% of the imports of Indian crude oil.
“A ceasefire is a good starting point but does not mean a peaceful agreement must be on a journey. If that happens, not because we will witness the flow of oil otherwise from India after the sanctions are revoked and the peace process is achieved. In fact, what will happen is a smoother source will be a smoother resource.
Chinese equation
Chinese raw buyers and analysts say the flow of Russian oil to oil consumers and the largest oil importers in Asia will not soon change even if Putin agrees with the ultimate peace agreement, because the policy moves by the EU will eventually affect the map of the Russian barrel oil flow map.
“If the US agrees to revoke sanctions, the risk of taking Russian barrels will be removed and will smooth logistics for existing Chinese buyers,” said a rough strategist based in Beijing with the oil giant managed by the government.
“However, the EU controls most of the shipping and insurance services. Unless the EU raises sanctions and returns to the market for Russian Tongs – which will be more difficult than reaching agreements with the US – The flow of trade is impossible to shift,” he added.
But a crude trader based in Singapore added: After Russia, Ukraine and the US made an agreement, the EU would not have a reason to insist and eventually lift sanctions. “
China relied on Russia for 19.6% of its raw imports in 2024, Chinese customs data showed. The proportion reached 15.5% in 2021 before the war. The volume jumped 36% from 1.6 million B/D in 2021 to 2.17 million B/D in 2024.
Some traders in independent refiners based in Shandong said they would continue to witness the development and movement of prices-in terms of Russian crude oil to be expensive after a peace agreement. There is no direct supply fears because some of Mega’s independent refiners are gradually building approved crude oil shares, according to market sources.
Russian Espo for April shipping is offered with a premium of around $ 2/B to Ice Brent Futures directly, compared to the premium $ 2.50- $ 2.70/B at the beginning of the month for March cargo, according to sources.
A source with an oil refinery managed by the government in North China said the price for Russian crude oil will eventually rise if all sanctions are stopped after a long drawn talks. “If India continues to buy Russian and European crude oil back to the market, prices will rise and less likely to go to China in the future.”
Source: Platts
