Japan: Tokyo inflation in focusing in the middle of the Dump Data End of Month
Japan: Disposal of the Month End Data, led by Tokyo Inflation, is the main highlight this week. We hope that Tokyo’s price stabilizes 3.3% in February. The cost of fresh food is expected to continue to rise, while some service sectors-especially eating outside-are seen spilling into a wider price gauge. However, the decline in energy prices due to subsidies must compensate for the overall price increase. Boj will watch carefully for signs of a surge in food recently, especially rice, forwarded to consumers. Meanwhile, data on broader activities tend to show gradual economic recovery. Industrial production is expected to increase quite a lot thanks to loading in front of main export goods such as cars and IT products amid the threat of US President Trump. Retail sales are expected to increase along with the increasing conditions of wages and foreign tourists flocked to Japan.
South Korea: Bok to cut its policy level of 25bp
South Korea: Bank Korea meets for policy decisions on Tuesday. As mentioned in our Bok preview, we expect 25 BP discounts. But we believe the guidance will be a bit hawkish. Next Saturday, Korea will release export data for February. We think that exports will recover after a contract in January amid noise related to the new year in trading figures. We believe that semiconductors and cars will lead profits.
China: MLF is expected to remain unchanged
China: The data calendar is quite light for China in the last week of February. The decision of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) regarding the level of medium -term loan facility (MLF) is expected on Tuesday. Considering Pivot to the Repo level upside down 7 days as the main policy level, we do not expect any changes to MLF this month.
Taiwan: Industrial Production and Renewal Data on GDP 4Q
Taiwan: Industrial Production Data January will be issued Tuesday. Because most of the Chinese New Year fell in January this year, we hope that the production of the Taiwan industry will slow down significantly from 20% year to year to around 1.7% yoy. Everything must recover in February. Also, the second estimate for the fourth quarter GDP came out on Wednesday.
Source: Ing
